Physics Today: Updated 2/18/2008 An out-of-control spy satellite called USA 193, which was launched in December 2006 but never reached its correct orbit, will be shot down by the US Navy with a Aegis SM-3 missile before the satellite re-enters Earth's atmosphere, says Joint Chiefs of Staff vice chairman James Cartwright. The decision, ordered by President Bush, is causing controversy in the wake of China's shooting down a weather satellite last year (see Physics Today articles China Raises Stakes on Space Arms Race March 2007 and Space debris October 2007) and because of the reasons given by the Bush administration for destroying the satellite. In a Pentagon press conference held with deputy national security advisor James Jeffrey and NASA administrator Michael Griffin this afternoon (14 February 2008), Cartwright said the highly toxic hydrazine fuel that the spy satellite uses is a significant risk to human health, so dispersing the fuel before re-entry would be safer. USA 193 would be hit “just prior to its hitting the Earth's atmosphere,” Cartwright said. It would be the first time a tactical missile has been used to take out a satellite instead of another missile. Not everyone is convinced however by the Pentagon's explanation (more).
The Pentagon believes that in some instances half the satellite could survive re-entry. Because the satellite was never activated, the 40-inch sphere fuel tank is full, says David Wright from the Union of Concerned Scientists. “There are a thousand-plus pounds of hydrazine fuel onboard,” says Jeffrey. “How serious that risk is, is hard to know,” adds Wright.
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at Harvard University who tracks rocket activity says, “There is only a small risk from the hydrazine, and in the unlikely event that the [satellite] landed in a populated area, one would only have to clear a few hundred yards.” Cartwright called the effects of hydrazine similar to chlorine gas poisoning; it would involve burning skin and lungs. Spacecraft use heaters to turn the hydrazine into a gas to use as fuel. On USA 193, the power has been out for months, and the hydrazine is in a frozen-solid state, “which leaves us with another unknown,” adds Cartwright, “how much of it would melt on re-entry.”
“The chances of [USA 193] actually hitting land are low,” says Theresa Hitchens of the Center for Defense Information, a Washington think tank. “Because the fuel lines will rip off in re-entry, at least some of the fuel will vent on the way down. So chances of very serious contamination are probably not that high.” In 1998 the NASA Lewis spacecraft with full hydrazine tanks burned up on re-entry without any difficulty, although that vessel was smaller than USA 193. More than 27 spacecraft burned up in the atmosphere last year. The hydrazine tank on the space shuttle Columbia however, did survive re-entry says Cartwright. In that case, the fuel tank was nearly empty as Columbia was returning home. The Russian’s used to destroy their spy satellites in orbit before they decayed into the atmosphere, to protect their technology secrets, but Cartwright discounted this rationale for shooting the satellite down in the question and answer session of the press conference.
“If they are able to hit the satellite directly, it will create a huge amount of debris,” says Wright. “This satellite is 2.5 tons [excluding fuel]—two and a half times more massive than the satellite China destroyed—and its destruction will create something like 100,000 pieces of debris larger than 1 cm.” Both McDowell and the Pentagon said this afternoon that because of the 240-km low orbit in which the US intends to hit the satellite, the debris field will disperse and burn up in the atmosphere relatively quickly, in hours or days. More than 50% of the debris should burn up on re-entry in under two days. Wang Ting, a researcher in China, who has modeled the potential debris field agrees with the administrations assessment, “most of fragments will decayed within 10 days,” he says. Independent confirmation after the shoot down of the size of the debris field will be difficult to obtain as the Pentagon is the only organization with a sophisticated radar system to track space debris.
“What I wonder about is debris that might be kicked into higher orbits by the energy of the collision,” says Wright, “and that might threaten the international space station, which orbits 100 km above the intercept.” Hitchens agrees. “This is not a risk-free operation,” she says. Griffen stated in the press conference that the space station is tougher than the space shuttle, and the risk of collision is acceptable, depending at which point in the stations orbit the Navy shoots down the satellite. “It will temporarily significantly increase the risk of collision with ISS,” says Ting. “My intuition is that the real collision risk on ISS is small.” Calculations carried out by Ting and Wright over the 16 February weekend indicate that the risk to the space station is temporarily increased by a factor of 7. "We could be looking at > 1 cm debris in this case that could be as high as 300,000-400,000 pieces," says Wright.
Plutonium unlikely to be the spacecraft’s power supply
“You really have to ask yourself why we would even consider going to this extreme for a reentering satellite, especially after all the fallout from the Chinese anti-satellite test,” says another analyst. Instead, he suspects that the spacecraft contains a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG), probably based on Plutonium 238, because of the small size of the satellite and because the spacecraft didn’t deploy any solar panels, despite having a suspected high-powered radar system onboard. However, Globalsecurity.org's Ted Molczan says disagrees and believes that USA 193 is solar-powered, and a thermal blanket may be covering up the solar panels from visual observations from the ground.
Spy satellites have used RTG’s for many years and on 24 January, 1978 a Russian spy satellite Cosmos 954 crashed into Canada, contaminating a wide area with radioactive material. Under international law the nation who owns the crashed satellite has to pay clean up costs from any such accident. Shooting such a satellite down would limit the fallout risk.
When queried by Physics Today, the National Reconnaissance Office denied that a RTG was onboard the spacecraft. Harold Finley the deputy assistant lab director for space programs at Idaho National Laboratory says the US has not used radioisotopes for earth orbiting satellites in decades. "Our security customers are all land based and our NASA missions are all solar system (not including earth)," he says. "We are not providing any radioisotopes for satellites that could fall back to earth."
John R Pike from globalsecurity.org has a different theory for the shoot down. He believes that the spacecraft has a new high-tech radar system that doesn't require large amounts of power, and it is limiting access to this technology is the real reason for the satellite's destruction. But during the press conference Cartwright confirmed that everything other than the fuel tank would be destroyed on re-entry even without a missile strike.
The real reason
McDowell suspects that the US action is more about testing the missile defense system. Hitchens agrees. “I think it's probably a chance for the navy to demonstrate that the Aegis missile defense system is worth its price tag. That's my best guess.” The SM-3 missile is the most successful part of the missile defense program, by passing 11 of its last 13 tests under extremely restricted and controlled conditions. Three warships will be stationed to try and shoot down the satellite; only one missile will be fired at first. A second shot might be attempted if the satellite is only slightly damaged.
The most dangerous aspect of the action could be political, adds Hitchens. The US is not breaking any treaties by shooting down a satellite with a ground missile, but “it certainly plays into fears abroad that our missile defense system is really a cover story for an offensive anti-satellite program. And . . . the new software they've put on the SM-3 to let it target a satellite is now there, and what would be stopping us from putting similar software on the ground missile defense interceptors that can actually reach an active satellite?” These concerns build on the paranoia already out there among both allies and potential competitors of the US, she adds. Cartwright said in today's press conference that the modification was a “one-time deal” and modifying the entire fleet to have the same capability would be “significant.”
The actual date the spy satellite will be shot down will be sometime around 6 March, when the risk of the debris field colliding with other satellites, the space shuttle or the international space station is minimized. "Whether the engagement succeeds or fails, the US is prepared to offer assistance to governments to mitigate the consequences of any satellite debris impacts on their territory," US Ambassador Christina Rocca told the Conference on Disarmament currently underway in Switzerland.
Article updated 2/15/2008 with additional information regarding power source.
Article updated 2/18/2008 with additional calculations on debris field and from Idaho National Laboratory.
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Related background information
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Transcript of Pentagon press conference
Don’t panic about falling spy satellite
Spy Satellite didn't deploy solar panels
Plutonium shortage for deep space missions, due to spy agency request, space.com 2002
Background on Hydrazine
Background on Radioisotope thermoelectric generator
Conference on Disarmament
US 193 What do we know? globalsecurity.org
The new US spy satellites
In Death of Spy Satellite Program, Lofty Plans and Unrealistic Bids New York Times November 2007