North Canada, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans likely path of spy satellite debris
Various: The first attempt at shooting down a disabled spy satellite will occur on Wednesday assuming bad weather does not delayed plans to launch. The US Navy had been waiting for the space shuttle Atlantis to land before its first attempt. Ted Molczan, an amateur satellite watcher says that the satellite is due to pass overhead at 10:30pm and according to space.com the Pentagon has warned aircraft to stay out of the area for the next two days.
The strike will cost between $40 and $60 million. The decaying orbital path of the satellite suggests that debris from the satellite will burn up on re-entry over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans or over the sparsely populated Northern Canada provinces.
According to calculations by Geoffrey Forden from MIT and colleagues of Jeffrey Lewis, the interceptor will hit the satellite at slightly less velocity than the Pentagon suggested, 9.4 km/s instead of 9.83 km/s. If the missile misses, it will take another 13 hours before another attempt can be taken. The likehood that it will come down in a populated area and cause a causality is calculated at 0.035%.
More and more analysts are becoming convinced that the shootdown is a statement about missile defense rather than the risk of the satellite hitting a populated area says Laura Grego, an astrophysicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program. "If the Pentagon demonstrates that its missile defense systems can destroy satellites, it will be very difficult to convince other countries that they shouldn't develop a similar anti‑satellite capability," she adds. Moreover, the strike will tell us little about the effectiveness of the Navy system against an actual missile, Grego says, as the satellite does not have decoys or other countermeasures, and its trajectory and the time of the engagement are known in advance, none of which would be expected in a real‑world attack.
Related links
Experts query Pentagon’s explanation for shooting down spy satellite
Geoffrey Forden’s analysis
USA 193 Risk Calculation
Attempt to shoot down spy satellite to cost up to $60 million
ObSat.com
USA 193 plot through restricted zone
U.S. Navy Might Shoot Down Spy Satellite Wednesday Night
Weather may delay satellite shootdown
Satellite Shot Offers Navy Key Space Defense Trial: How It Works
FEMA instructions on what to do if you find debris
